{
  "run_id": "31d147ef374090ca462d1c83316e39af5cf37b8ad73dac5a3b491f1ff924b67a",
  "mode": "live",
  "status": "complete",
  "goal": "Compare $8, $10, and $12 vegetarian lunches in San Francisco. Return simulated purchase interest for each price. Also assess, using cited external methodological research, whether synthetic survey intentions are valid evidence for choosing real-world lunch pricing. Identify what remains uncertain; simulated probabilities alone do not satisfy the external-evidence requirement.",
  "city": "sf",
  "plan_hash": "fa1b55a16d801325e8597bec4a1d25c99fa72fa6c3db919a08b1e9741312cf87",
  "residents": 10000,
  "results": [
    {
      "scenario_id": "lunch-8usd",
      "attempt": 1,
      "status": "complete",
      "audience_hash": "6825cab3dcb4d29dcd136dacfcdb2d429e7611a52f950ce3ea278b8369c104a8",
      "context_hash": "088072d0b8e9bfbdca6f10c01551f5a648a8c17f9844760f340b18ac942a8a92",
      "model": "zai-org/GLM-5.3-Flash",
      "as_of_date": "2026-10-17",
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      "answered_archetype_ids": [
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      "distribution": [
        {
          "option": "Yes, I would buy it",
          "probability": 0.4517347669203688
        },
        {
          "option": "I might buy it, but I'm unsure",
          "probability": 0.34909739946699614
        },
        {
          "option": "No, I would not buy it at that price",
          "probability": 0.19916783361263518
        }
      ],
      "error": null
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "lunch-10usd",
      "attempt": 1,
      "status": "complete",
      "audience_hash": "6825cab3dcb4d29dcd136dacfcdb2d429e7611a52f950ce3ea278b8369c104a8",
      "context_hash": "088072d0b8e9bfbdca6f10c01551f5a648a8c17f9844760f340b18ac942a8a92",
      "model": "zai-org/GLM-5.3-Flash",
      "as_of_date": "2026-10-17",
      "expected_archetype_ids": [
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      "answered_archetype_ids": [
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      "distribution": [
        {
          "option": "Yes, I would buy it",
          "probability": 0.5069752760496774
        },
        {
          "option": "I might buy it, but I'm unsure",
          "probability": 0.3108516583850024
        },
        {
          "option": "No, I would not buy it at that price",
          "probability": 0.18217306556532012
        }
      ],
      "error": null
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "lunch-12usd",
      "attempt": 1,
      "status": "complete",
      "audience_hash": "6825cab3dcb4d29dcd136dacfcdb2d429e7611a52f950ce3ea278b8369c104a8",
      "context_hash": "088072d0b8e9bfbdca6f10c01551f5a648a8c17f9844760f340b18ac942a8a92",
      "model": "zai-org/GLM-5.3-Flash",
      "as_of_date": "2026-10-17",
      "expected_archetype_ids": [
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        "a001",
        "a002",
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        "a007",
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        "a013",
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      "answered_archetype_ids": [
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      "distribution": [
        {
          "option": "Yes, I would buy it",
          "probability": 0.4541272844141235
        },
        {
          "option": "I might buy it, but I'm unsure",
          "probability": 0.33846262607712063
        },
        {
          "option": "No, I would not buy it at that price",
          "probability": 0.20741008950875575
        }
      ],
      "error": null
    }
  ],
  "checks": [
    {
      "check_id": "lunch-8usd:coverage",
      "status": "pass",
      "scenario_ids": [
        "lunch-8usd"
      ],
      "evidence": "Every expected archetype answered"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "lunch-8usd:context",
      "status": "pass",
      "scenario_ids": [
        "lunch-8usd"
      ],
      "evidence": "Audience, evidence, date, and model match the frozen plan"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "lunch-8usd:probabilities",
      "status": "pass",
      "scenario_ids": [
        "lunch-8usd"
      ],
      "evidence": "Ordered outcome probabilities are valid and sum to one"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "lunch-8usd:arithmetic",
      "status": "pass",
      "scenario_ids": [
        "lunch-8usd"
      ],
      "evidence": "Reported estimates match independently recomputed Census-weighted totals"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "lunch-10usd:coverage",
      "status": "pass",
      "scenario_ids": [
        "lunch-10usd"
      ],
      "evidence": "Every expected archetype answered"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "lunch-10usd:context",
      "status": "pass",
      "scenario_ids": [
        "lunch-10usd"
      ],
      "evidence": "Audience, evidence, date, and model match the frozen plan"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "lunch-10usd:probabilities",
      "status": "pass",
      "scenario_ids": [
        "lunch-10usd"
      ],
      "evidence": "Ordered outcome probabilities are valid and sum to one"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "lunch-10usd:arithmetic",
      "status": "pass",
      "scenario_ids": [
        "lunch-10usd"
      ],
      "evidence": "Reported estimates match independently recomputed Census-weighted totals"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "lunch-12usd:coverage",
      "status": "pass",
      "scenario_ids": [
        "lunch-12usd"
      ],
      "evidence": "Every expected archetype answered"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "lunch-12usd:context",
      "status": "pass",
      "scenario_ids": [
        "lunch-12usd"
      ],
      "evidence": "Audience, evidence, date, and model match the frozen plan"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "lunch-12usd:probabilities",
      "status": "pass",
      "scenario_ids": [
        "lunch-12usd"
      ],
      "evidence": "Ordered outcome probabilities are valid and sum to one"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "lunch-12usd:arithmetic",
      "status": "pass",
      "scenario_ids": [
        "lunch-12usd"
      ],
      "evidence": "Reported estimates match independently recomputed Census-weighted totals"
    }
  ],
  "events": [
    {
      "sequence": 1,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:27:45.573831+00:00",
      "stage": "planning",
      "message": "Creating explicit scenarios and freezing the audience"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 2,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:27:51.331865+00:00",
      "stage": "planning",
      "message": "Plan frozen: 10000 residents, 33 archetypes, 3 fixed identities (audience/context/model)"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 3,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:27:51.341929+00:00",
      "stage": "simulating",
      "message": "Running lunch-8usd (attempt 1)"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 4,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:27:58.538089+00:00",
      "stage": "simulating",
      "message": "lunch-8usd: complete (33/33 archetypes)"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 5,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:27:58.542142+00:00",
      "stage": "simulating",
      "message": "Running lunch-10usd (attempt 1)"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 6,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:28:05.935584+00:00",
      "stage": "simulating",
      "message": "lunch-10usd: complete (33/33 archetypes)"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 7,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:28:05.939450+00:00",
      "stage": "simulating",
      "message": "Running lunch-12usd (attempt 1)"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 8,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:28:11.958888+00:00",
      "stage": "simulating",
      "message": "lunch-12usd: complete (33/33 archetypes)"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 9,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:28:11.964836+00:00",
      "stage": "checking",
      "message": "12 / 12 deterministic checks passed"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 10,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:28:11.968855+00:00",
      "stage": "verifying",
      "message": "Deterministic checks passed; requesting independent semantic verification"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 11,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:28:55.299538+00:00",
      "stage": "verifying",
      "message": "Nemotron review: Repair; 1 model call(s)"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 12,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:28:55.328792+00:00",
      "stage": "researching",
      "message": "Verifier requested You.com evidence: Find cited external methodological research on the validity of synthetic survey intentions as evidence for real-world lunch pricing decisions, focusing on whether stated purchase intent in simulations correlates with actual purchasing behavior in food context studies."
    },
    {
      "sequence": 13,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:28:57.002910+00:00",
      "stage": "researching",
      "message": "Saved 5 source records with retrieval timestamps."
    },
    {
      "sequence": 14,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:28:57.002914+00:00",
      "stage": "synthesizing",
      "message": "Writing a cited assessment of the original objection for independent recheck."
    },
    {
      "sequence": 15,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:33:03.973597+00:00",
      "stage": "blocked",
      "message": "Research assessment unresolved: Crusoe request failed"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 16,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:40:09.310509+00:00",
      "stage": "verifying",
      "message": "Assessment retry requested; reusing original simulation results and saved sources"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 17,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:40:09.330558+00:00",
      "stage": "synthesizing",
      "message": "Writing a cited assessment of the original objection for independent recheck."
    },
    {
      "sequence": 18,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:40:17.147844+00:00",
      "stage": "synthesizing",
      "message": "Cited assessment saved; Nemotron must recheck it against the original objection and sources."
    },
    {
      "sequence": 19,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:40:17.166076+00:00",
      "stage": "checking",
      "message": "12 / 12 deterministic checks passed"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 20,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:40:17.172568+00:00",
      "stage": "verifying",
      "message": "Deterministic checks passed; requesting independent semantic verification"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 21,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:40:37.618164+00:00",
      "stage": "verifying",
      "message": "Nemotron review: Blocked; 1 model call(s)"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 22,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:40:37.647915+00:00",
      "stage": "blocked",
      "message": "Independent review could not be validated. Saved simulation results are preserved; verification may be retried within the remaining review budget."
    },
    {
      "sequence": 23,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:41:01.036689+00:00",
      "stage": "verifying",
      "message": "Verification retry requested; reusing the original simulation results"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 24,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:41:01.066779+00:00",
      "stage": "checking",
      "message": "12 / 12 deterministic checks passed"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 25,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:41:01.075534+00:00",
      "stage": "verifying",
      "message": "Deterministic checks passed; requesting independent semantic verification"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 26,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:41:24.893009+00:00",
      "stage": "verifying",
      "message": "Nemotron review: Pass; 1 model call(s)"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 27,
      "at": "2026-10-17T21:41:24.933671+00:00",
      "stage": "complete",
      "message": "All required deterministic and semantic checks passed."
    }
  ],
  "record_type": "Selected fields from a recorded live run; not a new execution",
  "archetype_count": 33,
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "scenario_id": "lunch-8usd",
      "question": "Would you buy this vegetarian lunch at the stated price in this scenario?",
      "description": "A vegetarian lunch offered in San Francisco at $8, evaluated by the full synthetic resident population under otherwise identical conditions.",
      "options": [
        "Yes, I would buy it",
        "I might buy it, but I'm unsure",
        "No, I would not buy it at that price"
      ],
      "assumptions": [
        "Vegetarian lunch offered at $8",
        "Location and availability assumed typical San Francisco lunch service",
        "All other conditions held constant across price scenarios"
      ]
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "lunch-10usd",
      "question": "Would you buy this vegetarian lunch at the stated price in this scenario?",
      "description": "The same vegetarian lunch offered in San Francisco at $10, evaluated by the full synthetic resident population under otherwise identical conditions.",
      "options": [
        "Yes, I would buy it",
        "I might buy it, but I'm unsure",
        "No, I would not buy it at that price"
      ],
      "assumptions": [
        "Vegetarian lunch offered at $10",
        "Location and availability assumed typical San Francisco lunch service",
        "All other conditions held constant across price scenarios"
      ]
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "lunch-12usd",
      "question": "Would you buy this vegetarian lunch at the stated price in this scenario?",
      "description": "The same vegetarian lunch offered in San Francisco at $12, evaluated by the full synthetic resident population under otherwise identical conditions.",
      "options": [
        "Yes, I would buy it",
        "I might buy it, but I'm unsure",
        "No, I would not buy it at that price"
      ],
      "assumptions": [
        "Vegetarian lunch offered at $12",
        "Location and availability assumed typical San Francisco lunch service",
        "All other conditions held constant across price scenarios"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "reviews": [
    {
      "verdict": "repair",
      "summary": "The experiment satisfies deterministic checks and reports simulated probabilities for three price points, but the goal requires cited external methodological research on whether synthetic survey intentions are valid evidence for real-world lunch pricing decisions. No such evidence was provided in the web_research section, creating a researchable gap that must be addressed before conclusions about validity can be supported."
    },
    {
      "verdict": "blocked",
      "summary": "Independent verification is unavailable (invalid_review_evidence); completion is blocked. No scenario was rerun. Invalid evidence fields: finding 3: nonexistent or disallowed pointer."
    },
    {
      "verdict": "pass",
      "summary": "The experiment addresses the goal by comparing three price points and providing cited external methodological research on synthetic survey intentions' validity for real-world lunch pricing decisions. The conclusions appropriately frame the simulated probabilities as hypothetical model estimates, note the intention-behavior gap, and state that the results require real-world validation. All required checks are satisfied: goal alignment is met via scenario inputs and descriptions; assumptions are explicit and consistent; conclusions are supported by results and acknowledge synthetic-data limits; p1.e1265fb0207a5772146f512851d0a1996c32f231833d454120f5347807b96014 passes as the deterministic checks confirm scenario completion and the semantic check acknowledges missing external evidence; and web_grounding is satisfied by citing /web_research/sources/0 (web-1) which directly addresses the validity of synthetic survey intentions for predicting consequential behavior, with conclusions faithfully representing its evidence about the intention-behavior gap and overstatement of willingness to pay."
    }
  ],
  "objection": "The experiment satisfies deterministic checks and reports simulated probabilities for three price points, but the goal requires cited external methodological research on whether synthetic survey intentions are valid evidence for real-world lunch pricing decisions. No such evidence was provided in the web_research section, creating a researchable gap that must be addressed before conclusions about validity can be supported.",
  "assessment": {
    "assessment": "The supplied sources directly address the verifier's objection: they are external methodological research on whether stated/synthetic purchase intentions predict real-world behavior, including in purchase/pricing contexts. Key points: [web-1] argues that synthetic-population validations typically test correspondence with survey responses rather than consequential behavior, and cites the intention-behavior gap and stated-preference overstatement of willingness to pay versus revealed choices (Murphy et al., 2005); this is the strongest direct support that synthetic survey intentions are imperfect evidence for real-world pricing decisions. [web-2] finds intentions do correlate with subsequent purchase behavior (self-generated validity: correlation ~58% higher among surveyed consumers), supporting predictive value of measured intentions but also showing the act of surveying inflates the intention-behavior link. [web-3] documents systematic intention biases, intention change over time, and imperfect intention-purchase correlation, proposing corrective models. [web-5] shows intention-sales correlations vary widely and depend on timing and volitional control, conditions hard to meet in marketing research. [web-4] validates a vignette-based willingness measure against real behavioral data, illustrating the required validation step. Application to this task: the simulated distributions (yes-buy ~45.2% at $8, ~50.7% at $10, ~45.4% at $12) show a modest peak at $10, but the literature indicates stated purchase intent likely overstates actual demand ([web-1], [web-3]), and no source validates synthetic-agent responses specifically for food/lunch purchases, so the absolute probabilities should not be treated as calibrated demand forecasts. The relative pattern (peak at $10, non-monotonic decline to $12) is directionally plausible but unsupported by any cited food-context field evidence. Overall, the evidence supports using the simulations only as provisional, relative indications requiring real-world validation (e.g., price A/B testing), not as sufficient evidence for choosing a lunch price.",
    "source_ids": [
      "web-1",
      "web-2",
      "web-3",
      "web-4",
      "web-5"
    ],
    "limitations": [
      "No cited study validates synthetic-agent (LLM-generated) survey responses specifically for food or lunch purchase behavior; all evidence concerns human stated-intention surveys.",
      "Stated-preference methods are known to overstate willingness to pay relative to revealed choices [web-1], so simulated buy rates likely exceed real demand.",
      "Intention-behavior correlation varies widely and depends on timing, volitional control, and intention stability [web-5], none of which are characterized for this lunch scenario.",
      "The simulated distributions are not externally validated; the non-monotonic $8 vs $10 vs $12 pattern could be noise, and no confidence intervals are available.",
      "The cited works cover diverse product categories (heat pumps, cell phones, sharing), not restaurant lunch pricing in San Francisco; context transfer is unverified."
    ]
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "web-1",
      "title": "Consequential Behaviour and Representational Fairness in the ...",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/html/2609.27690"
    },
    {
      "id": "web-2",
      "title": "(PDF) Do Intentions Really Predict Behavior? Self-Generated Validity ...",
      "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233777718_Do_Intentions_Really_Predict_Behavior_Self-Generated_Validity_Effects_in_Survey_Research"
    },
    {
      "id": "web-3",
      "title": "Stated intentions and purchase behavior: A unified model - ...",
      "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167811610000704"
    },
    {
      "id": "web-4",
      "title": "Validating a willingness to share measure of a vignette experiment ...",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-92349-2"
    },
    {
      "id": "web-5",
      "title": "When do purchase intentions predict sales? - ScienceDirect",
      "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207007000799"
    }
  ],
  "search_calls": 1,
  "manual_retries": 2
}